Models Trending to lighter Rainfall

Hi all,
Just a short quick update.
After a beautiful day for the most part in New Jersey today, it looks like the weekend is headed for a short 180 spin. Model Spreads have been rather interesting over today as it seems that the bulk of the QPF axis will be to the west and to the east of our area.

Rain will move into the area tonight as a cold front approaches from the west, and a weak Low Pressure moves east of the area following the flow around the trough. Yesterday models had the cold front pushing east on a slower approach, allowing the weak coastal low to move up along the trough and over the area, enhancing rainfall rates and QPF totals. But model guidance today have confined on a consensus that the Front will approach at a accelerated pace, pushing the weak coastal low OTS, and force it to be a none factor for our area tomorrow except for some ruff surf along the beaches.
As seen yesterday, guidance has also continued to show the cold front weakening as it pushes east. Most model spit out the heaviest DBZ bands over central and eastern Pennsylvania, before having the storms rapidly weaken due to the incredibly stable and marine layer infused atmosphere in New Jersey. Most models show a total QPF accumulation the next 48 hours between .25 and 1 inch. Western New Jersey will likely see the heaviest banding and the best chance for higher QPF amounts due to less of a marine influence. Once the convection reaches the coastal plain, it will die out rapidly as seen many times this year. The GFS is the most aggressive in terms of QPF output in New Jersey tomorrow, and i would call it the more extreme solution, while the GEM and NAM have between .25-.5 inches of total accumulation. I'm siding with the GEM and NAM with the lower targeted QPF total with this one. Looking at the current radar and Mesocale , the bulk of the heaviest convection has it axis over eastern PA, exactly were the NAM and GEM have it at this time. Some places may over preform if they get stuck in a elevated convection feed for a long duration, some places, especially along the coast have the possibility to stay dry.

Looking forward into the longer term, most modes still want to bring a deep mean trough into the Eastern United states. There is quite the model consensus with this solution also. The ECMWF, GFS, and GEM all agree that this pattern change will stay to at least the first week or two of august. The telleconnections( - AO through the first week of august, + to neutral PNA, and a neutral to -NAO) and MJO support this type of pattern. Model guidance has actually trended stronger  and deeper with the trough it self. With this in place, the first two weeks of august  and the last week or two of July could be just near normal to below average. After mid August model guidance separates into again wanting to rebuild the Western Atlantic Ridge into the ara, or keep a more zonal cooler pattern.
Stay Dry tomorrow, and get ready for a nice cool Monday!
I will have a longer update tomorrow on the week ahead and longer range going forward.
Have a good night!
Ryan Remondelli