Fantastic Start to the Weekend

Good Morning Everyone,

Its looks as if Model Guidance over night has trended for a "nicer" Friday. Most models have increased Max temperatures for the day today, and for coastal sections, have weakened the sea breeze forecast.
Lets start,
 The LP that effected our area yesterday leaving us with a autumn like feel, is leaving our area to the north quicker than foretasted. This allowed the heaviest cloud cover axis to be significantly further east than anticipated at this time in the morning. Also the earlier departure will allow the  north east winds to shift out from the east to a due south flow earlier. Thus it will allow the 850 temperatures to move into the 12+ degree Celsius range, with more day time heating. All of this means, warmer Max temperatures today, with most places away from the coast in interior NJ seeing low 80s today. This while temperatures along the beaches stay into the mid to high 70s, with a lighter sea breeze under 5-6 knots( a heavy sea breeze of 8+ knots along with low 70s was the model agreement yesterday) marks a improvement for the start of another busy weekend here dawn at the shore.
Saturday looks to be the best day here in NJ this weekend. With a warm and some what humid Southwesterly flow with 14-16 degree Celsius 850s above, will allow almost every one to get into the 80s in the area. Not much to talk about for tomorrow.

Sunday itself will get more interesting as another cold front will start approaching from the west. There is a few possible solutions i want to go over.

One of my favorite model the GEM, wants to move the cold front int Pennsylvania, but then weakens the front and transfers the southern end of the cold front's energy to a coastal low developing near South Carolina. Due to the LP being ahead of the negatively tilted 500mb trough it has a chance to move offshore, and pull in and deepen over warm SST.

Here is the GEM hour 66. You can see the Main LP voracity over the Great Lakes, and the negatively tilted trough over the east. Its axis is from Indianapolis to Jacksonville Florida. With that tilt you can see the LP being able to effect NJ( the dark shade.) You can also see a enhanced LLJ on the GEM in the 500mb. The line of weak energy along the cold front will help enhance rainfall rates in conjunction with the counterclockwise flow pulling moisture off the ocean. It almost looks as it is trying to form a CCB complex around the low level circulation. 

You can easy see how the moisture feed off the warm SST effects the heaviest precipitation axis.

Now lets take look at the other end of the guidance. The latest GFS ha trended a bit to the rest of the model field but still dose not show a developing coastal low. It has the cold front weaken as the rest of guidance. It does transfer some energy to a 1013mb low, but that low does not develop, and its precipitation shield weakens before moving offshore. 

What could be causing the GFS to be so different? Well lets look at the 500mb map differences for the same hour.

The Main low pressure near the Great Lakes is lot stronger aloft than on the GEM. This is due mostly due to the fact of the GEM intention of phasing part of the energy from the ULL over the lakes. With out the phase and any LLJ help from the trough or the ULL, the GFS coastal low, is almost non existent, and cant deepen. The Trough over the east is less negatively tilted not giving the Circulation enough time or power to grab the SST off the Atlantic and strengthen.

Their is lots to work out for Sunday and i hope we can get a model consensus on track, strength, and QPF amounts by Saturday morning, but by how the models have preformed so far in July, i can only hope.

Have a Great Weekend

Ryan Remondelli