Hi all,
With the trough nicely situated in the east for the next couple days, a high pressure sitting to our west, and cool 850s above with clear skies, i think we have a chance for some record lows tonight. Models have most people on the coastal plain bottoming out in the low 60s, due to marine layer influence, but people 50-60 miles inland that have a more Northerly flow from the HP to the west, will see temperatures reaching into the 50s, and maybe a outside chance for a high 40 degree reading, especially in the tallest mountainous areas.
A look into the tropics sees invest 92-L in the Caribbean, and invest 93 in the Atlantic. Both are given a high probability by the NHC in formation.
I believe invest 92-l is a greater threat to the immediate US coast at this time, given most ensemble models forecasting it to be picked up by a approaching frontal boundary to the north and directed into the Southern US coast. Intensity models are varying greatly with 92-L given the exact formation and position of the stacked LLC, and MLC is not fully observed and or known yet, giving forecast models a hard time forecasting how much interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula and how much time over the warm GOM SST it will have. If 92-l takes a more slower and westward track with more interaction with the Yucatan, it could be at a greater risk with increased wind shear and of course land interaction disrupting the circulations developmental ability and sustainment. But if it takes a more expedited and easterly track, it has a greater chance to develop over the warm SST and a more favorable environment.
Invest 93 is a little less exciting. Given the foretasted movement to the NW, it looks as if 93 will eventually develop, but will likely be held to lower strength and intensity over the next couple days due to cooler SST, and the increased presence of the Saharan Dry air still embedded in the Atlantic.
I guess it is a race to the next name storm....
Have a great day!
Ryan Remondelli
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