Possible MCS Event for the 28-29th

Sorry for the lack of posts,
Weather has been lacking in excitement.
Anyay, it looks as if we could could be in for a possible MCS event for the 28-29th. MCS stands for Mesoscale Convective System, and is basically a large concentrated squall line that travels extended distances. And it looks as if we have a good set up for one to form. The GFS and the EURO are at much different solutions right now. The GFS want this MCS event to be a more mid Atlantic event, actually missing us with the precip to the south, while the EURO Is more of a hit for the area. The Difference in the solutions is really at the 500mb level. BY that time it looks as if their will be a +EPO, and a Negative PNA. Meaning that their will be a ridge in the pacific telleconnecting to a trough on the west coast, connecting to a ridge in the central part of the country, and a trough in the east. Thats how telleconnections work, its all physical reactions.

But at the 500mb the EURO and GFS are quite different were they want to set up the ridging in the middle of the country.

The GFS want to develop a much more_PNA thus a sharper trough into the west coast allowing the center of the ridge to be further west. With the sharper trough in the west, the reaction in the east coast to the farther west ridge is a much sharper and south trough in the east. 

This allows for the energy and precipitation associated with the ULL to dive much further south missing the area.

Meanwhile the EURO and its better physics drive, is showing a less amplified -PNA trough in the west coast, allowing a more east based center of the ridging. The only allows for a weaker and more east (offshore, more zonal for our area) based trough , keeping the ULL more to the north, thus the MCS convection to the north also hitting the area.

This more northern track puts us in the line of fire

The GEM also agrees with the EURO in terms of set up. But has a more amplified west based trough in the east allowing for the MCS convection to come right through the mid Atlantic

The GEM is the moderate here in the situation.

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Im betting on a track between the Euro and the GEM and their more advanced physics drives with this one. But we will see in the coming days how the models advance with the pattern.

Have a good one.